Are we out of the woods yet?
Sunday, October 4, 2009

There seems to be a sense of relief as markets report positive signs and we hear talk of recovery being just round the corner.

I am not sure if the relief is from a knowledge of busines environment improving at a fundamental level or is it due to a break in the economic slide and a mixture of hope and wishful thinking.

The global economic scenario is like an Olympic athelete who has been doing very well for the last 10 years with people having been used to a stellar performacne at every game.

Let us say this athelete met with a fatal accident in terms of global recession and everyone was scared for a while if he will survive or not. Everyone waited with bated breath while the athelete battled with life in the ICU for a few months, almost a year.

It seems that he has now survived, has come out of the ICU and is reporting normal signs for last few weeks.

The fears of his death were so high that markets and people are jubiliant upon his survival.

However as he regains his energy, it will take time for the realisation to sink in that the athelete may have suffered damages which might be permanent.

The twin legs which powered the atehlete, availiblity of easy money and high consumption in US and Europe, have taken a big hit and he has almost lost both the legs in this recession.

It is theoretically possible that atehlete may turn into a super star singer, let us say if emerging economies drive the demand in future, or the world finds alternatives to easier money, but it not a certainity.

So where do we stand exactly?

Here are my 2 cents

Has the haemorrhage stopped....looks like it…has the recovery started…maybe, how soon will we see growth levels of days before the pre lehman bust …not for a long time now.

posted by Anirudh Joshi @ 1:47 AM,